Cyclone Alfred: A Reminder from Mother Nature

Editorial Assistant William Cheng covers the formation of Cyclone Alfred and why it was such an unusual occurrence. 

Cyclone Alfred made landfall on 8 March 2025, the first cyclone to hit the Gold Coast since 1974’s Cyclone Zoe.^[1] What would become Cyclone Alfred was first detected on 20 February as a tropical low (designated as 22U) – a moderate-strength, low pressure system that can bring severe thunderstorms and significant rainfall.^{[2, 3]} The tropical low was theorised to have a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.^[4] 

Figure 1^[5]

Two days later, the tropical low was upgraded to a category one cyclone, assigned with the name Tropical Cyclone Alfred.^[6] Over the next few days, the cyclone continued to intensify. On  27 February, it became a category four cyclone, later forming an eyewall replacement cycle that weakened the cyclone.^[7] This would cause Cyclone Alfred to fluctuate between category three and four on 1 March, before weakening even further into a category one the following day. Cyclone Alfred would continue to fluctuate between category one and two for the next three days as it meandered off the coast. 

Cyclone Alfred would make landfall over the Moreton Bay Islands off the coast of Queensland on 7 March at 11:30pm, as a category one cyclone.^[8] At 6:45am on 8 March, Cyclone Alfred would be downgraded to a tropical low before crossing over to the mainland.^[9]

The impact of Cyclone Alfred was significant, with extensive damage to the Gold Coast such as fallen trees, eroded beaches and widespread power outages. Many people were injured, one person died and four have been declared missing (as of the time of writing). The cyclone is estimated to have caused $1.2 billion in economic losses.^[10]

The damage could have been worse if not for the Moreton Bay Islands acting as a buffer, according to one Steve Turton. Turton, an adjunct professor of environmental geography at Central Queensland University, has been studying tropical cyclones for 30 years. He reported that without the islands, the cyclone could have retained its category two status and caused greater damage.^[11]

Preparations for the cyclone began on 28 February, with warnings issued in south-east Queensland. All major forecasting models predicted that the cyclone’s landfall would happen between 6-8 March. Many sandbagging stations were opened to prepare for the imminent cyclone. Ferry services would be suspended on the evening of 3 March to move the vessels to safety.^[12]

From 4 March and onwards, a Watch and Act level warning was issued for many areas in Queensland. Many events were cancelled. Universities were closed, their classes moved online.^[13] On 5 March, public and private schools in the Northern Rivers region of NSW were closed. Many evacuation centres were opened, along with the restriction of vessels travelling from the Gold Coast to Moreton Bay Islands, and the Gold Coast Airport was closed.^[14]

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that a ‘period of emergency’ had been enacted. The Australian Defense Force was activated with immediate effect.^[15] Albanese confirmed that 125,000 sandbags would be delivered to the Queensland government, with an additional 80,000 being delivered by the Defense Force. Heavy-lift helicopters were also to be deployed to assist with preparations.^[16]

On 6 March, Cyclone Alfred’s approach slowed down, delaying the cyclone’s landfall by six hours. Public schools, public transport, major roads, and airports in south-east Queensland were shut down, though emergency services would still operate.^[17] At 9pm, the first ‘Emergency Warning’ level warnings were issued for the Redland City Island Communities.^[18] However, significant damage from the cyclone began this day. Large pine trees were felled in Kirra from strong winds,^[19] and 80,000 properties across Queensland and NSW were left without power.^[20] 43,000 of those outages in the Northern Rivers area were due to trees collapsing on powerlines.^[21]

On 7 March, warnings were issued to Gold Coast residents to stay away from the area over uncertainty towards the stability of the beach after major erosion. Schools in the Northern Rivers area were to remain closed until 10 March. There were warnings of airport delays across the country as Brisbane’s radar was impacted by the cyclone, thus risking midair radars across the east coast of having no signal. Albanese announced a further 120 personnel from the ADF being deployed to northern New South Wales to support the State Emergency Service’s efforts.^[25] At 3:50pm and 4pm, an emergency warning was issued for the Gold Coast and Redland City for the populace to take shelter and stay indoors overnight.^{[26, 27]}

On 8 March, the cyclone had downgraded to a tropical low, reducing the possible danger of the cyclone though heavy rainfall was still expected to continue across south-east Queensland and northern NSW, with both regions on high alert for flooding.^[28] The now tropical low made landfall around 9pm, predicted to move inland rapidly while continuing to weaken.^[29]

One of the most significant damages from Cyclone Alfred is the major erosion of the coastline beaches in northern NSW and Queensland. However, the worst predictions were not realised,  with Byron Shire Mayor Sarah Ndiaye stating that they had “dodged a bullet.”^[30]

Even with the erosion of the beaches, recovery seems probable with the Gold Coast City Council hoping to repair the beaches by Easter for the tourism season, and many measures in place to counter the erosion.^[31]

Considering the preparation Cyclone Alfred demanded and the damage it caused, it is important to reiterate that this is the first cyclone to hit this far south since Cyclone Zoe in 1974. While tropical cyclones are common in Queensland’s tropical north, it’s rare for them to be near the temperate border with New South Wales.^[32] This begs the question – why did Cyclone Alfred strike so far south? 

Climate change is the cause. More specifically, the warmer ocean waters allow storms to pick up more energy, leading to higher wind speeds.^[33] While climate change does not cause more cyclones to form, they intensify those that do, leading to an increased frequency of high intensity tropical cyclones.^[34]

Thus with the aftermath of Cyclone Alfred, Mother Nature gives us another reminder of the great disaster that we’ve neglected: climate change. The disaster isn’t coming, it’s already here. Now, we need to ask ourselves and those who have the power – what will we do in the face of this disaster?

References:

[1] Saueurs, Craig. “‘A Rare Event’: Is Climate Change to Blame for Cyclone Alfred?” Euronews, Euronews.com, 6 Mar. 2025, www.euronews.com/green/2025/03/06/warm-oceans-shifting-winds-what-is-the-science-behind-cyclone-alfreds-strength. 

[2] Mellet, Gabrielle Becerra. “Cyclone Likely to Form off Queensland Coast, BOM Says.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 20 Feb. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-21/queensland-weather-cyclone-developing-bom/104960468.  

[3] Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. “What Is a Tropical Cyclone?” Www.bom.gov.au, 2020, www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/tc-info/.

[4]  Mellet, Gabrielle Becerra. “Cyclone Likely to Form off Queensland Coast, BOM Says.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 20 Feb. 2025, 

[5] BBC. “Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Explained.” BBC, Online Image, 17 Dec. 2024, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42251921 

[6] Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. “Tropical Climate Update Archive.” Bom.gov.au, 25 Feb. 2025, www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/archive/20250225.archive.shtml. 

[7] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Alfred Nearing Its First Peak Intensity on February 27.” Wikipedia, Online Image, 27 Feb. 2025, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Alfred_(2025)#/media/File:Alfred_2025-02-27_0320Z.jpg. 

[8] Kothari, Rishav. “Tropical Cyclone Alfred Makes Landfall over Moreton Bay Islands.” The Watchers, 7 Mar. 2025, watchers.news/2025/03/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-makes-landfall-over-moreton-bay-islands/ 

[9] Dervisevic, Hanan. “Can I Go Outside Now That Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred Is a Tropical Low? Here’s What You Need to Know.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 8 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-08/ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-can-i-go-outside-leave-my-home/105026992. 

[10] Jose, Renju. “Cyclone Alfred to Dent Australia’s March-Quarter GDP, Treasurer Says.” Reuters, 17 Mar. 2025, www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/cyclone-alfred-dent-australias-march-quarter-gdp-treasurer-will-say-2025-03-16/. 

[11]  Burgess, Annika, and Zena Chamas. “Residents of Islands That Saved Millions from Cyclone Alfred Say They Are the Lucky Ones.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 12 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-13/queensland-bay-island-cyclone-alfred-protection-damage-aftermath/105037670. 

[12] Ward, Sarah. “Brisbane’s CityCats and Ferries Have Been Suspended until Further Notice due to Tropical Cyclone Alfred.” Concrete Playground, 3 Mar. 2025, concreteplayground.com/brisbane/travel-leisure/brisbane-citycats-ferries-suspended-tropical-cyclone-alfred. 

[13] Vidler, Adam, et al. “First Flood Warnings Issued as Cyclone Alfred Bears Down.” @9News, Breaking Australian and World News Headlines - 9News, 5 Mar. 2025, www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-2025-live-updates-forecast-warnings-what-to-know/1fae781e-26eb-40ba-9ae0-a2eb5be3b625#post=e064bf65-8370-4ee4-8e7d-af5d478433e1. 

[14] ABC News (Australia). “IN FULL: Queensland Premier David Crisafulli Gives Update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred | ABC NEWS.” YouTube, 4 Mar. 2025, www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fmucIIsKxU. 

[15] ABC News (Australia). “IN FULL: Cyclone Alfred Update from Prime Minister, Queensland Premier | ABC NEWS.” YouTube, 4 Mar. 2025, www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWs5GVxY_Y. 

[16] Carr, Cameron, et al. “Queensland Faces Alfred’s ‘Second Phase’, as Lismore Braces for ‘Entirely Different Game.’” SBS News, 5 Mar. 2025, www.sbs.com.au/news/article/evacuations-begin-as-tropical-cyclone-alfred-expected-to-make-landfall/snux670do. 

[17] Walter, Riley. “Cyclone Alfred as It Happened: Category Downgrade Possible as Storm Approaches Queensland Coast; NSW Northern Rivers Evacuation Warnings Issued for Lismore, Surrounding Areas.” The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 Mar. 2025, www.smh.com.au/national/cyclone-alfred-live-updates-brisbane-south-east-queensland-braces-for-first-direct-impact-from-storm-in-50-years-northern-nsw-prepares-for-flooding-20250305-p5lh6c.html. 

[18]  Crick, Jordan. “WARNING NO LONGER ACTIVE – Take Shelter Now – Tropical Cyclone Alfred.” Redlands Coast Today, 6 Mar. 2025, www.redlandscoasttoday.com.au/2025/03/emergency-warning-take-shelter-now-tropical-cyclone-alfred/. 

[19] Wind, Emily, et al. “Cyclone Alfred Live Updates: Brisbane CBD Deserted; Power Outages across Gold Coast; BoM Tracking Map and Weather Forecast Shows Flood Risk for Queensland and Northern NSW.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 7 Mar. 2025, www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw. 

[20] ABC News (Australia). “IN FULL: Cyclone Alfred and the WA Election on Afternoon Briefing with Patricia Karvelas | ABC NEWS.” YouTube, 6 Mar. 2025, www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Up87_srihs. 

[21] ABC News. “Cyclone Alfred: ‘Take Shelter Now’ Warnings Issued with Cyclone to Strike Mainland on Saturday Morning — as It Happened.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 6 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-queensland-nsw-landfall-friday/105019120. 

[22] Touma, Rafqa, et al. “Alfred Reaches Mainland; Defence Personnel ‘Seriously’ Injured in Collision – as It Happened.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 8 Mar. 2025, www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw?page=with%3Ablock-67ca17468f0868fde2557570&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation. 

[23] ABC News. “Cyclone Alfred: ‘Take Shelter Now’ Warnings Issued with Cyclone to Strike Mainland on Saturday Morning — as It Happened.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 6 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-queensland-nsw-landfall-friday/105019120. 

[24] Visontay, Elias. “Alfred Reaches Mainland; Defence Personnel ‘Seriously’ Injured in Collision – as It Happened.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 8 Mar. 2025, www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-67ca36788f088ad37ff99cbf#block-67ca36788f088ad37ff99cbf. 

[25] Touma, Rafqa, et al. “Alfred Reaches Mainland; Defence Personnel ‘Seriously’ Injured in Collision – as It Happened.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 8 Mar. 2025, www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw?page=with%3Ablock-67ca17468f0868fde2557570&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation. 

[26] City of Gold Coast. “City of Gold Coast.” Facebook.com, 7 Mar. 2022, www.facebook.com/cityofgoldcoast/posts/pfbid02FaUrrPXFeYquuCncqNzGvHtVW5sbkUatPXa7ZKdLwszJfyZ6EwTshRfwAsr4nzkql. 

[27]  Redland City Council. “**UPDATE** This Emergency Alert Has Been... - Redland City Council.” Facebook.com, 7 Mar. 2025, www.facebook.com/RedlandCouncil/posts/pfbid09cqDkAginhAwXSKQUM3USvd8T7Qd99Xj62JtrQiTJhPozhUhqjZCJ7v3EQkDZSdol. 

[28] Touma, Rafqa, et al. “Alfred Reaches Mainland; Defence Personnel ‘Seriously’ Injured in Collision – as It Happened.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 8 Mar. 2025, www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw?page=with%3Ablock-67ca17468f0868fde2557570&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation. 

[29] Ibid.

[30]  Doman, Mark, et al. “Drone Maps Reveal Scale of Sand Swallowed in Cyclone.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 14 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-15/drone-maps-reveal-scale-of-sand-swallowed-in-cyclone/105053372.

[31] André, Julia. “Gold Coast Council Working to Restore Eroded Beaches by Easter after Cyclone Alfred Damage.” Abc.net.au, ABC News, 11 Mar. 2025, www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-12/gold-coast-council-work-restore-cyclone-beaches-by-easter/105036706. 

[32] Saueurs, Craig. “‘A Rare Event’: Is Climate Change to Blame for Cyclone Alfred?” Euronews, Euronews.com, 6 Mar. 2025, www.euronews.com/green/2025/03/06/warm-oceans-shifting-winds-what-is-the-science-behind-cyclone-alfreds-strength.  [33] Poynting, Mark. “Is Climate Change Making Hurricanes Worse?” BBC News, 16 Dec. 2024, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42251921. 

[34] Ibid.